Am I beating a DEAD horse???

I know, I know I sound all misery and gloom. My friends used to call me Perma bear because I refused to buy a house and wouldn't invest in stocks. But the last year or so, they have begun to understand my reasoning. Ok, this was mainly because I wanted to concentrate on my business and had limited capital, but there was always a deep nagging doubt in the back of my head.

The problem with a bubble, of any kind, is that it is almost impossible to tell the top. So I was quite happy to step aside for the last several years because I didn't want to be caught at the top. Was I right to do this, hell I don't know. But I spent the time concentrating on my business, and not dabbling in other things and that seems to have worked quite well. The one thing I was certain I would never do is to get overextended in debt.

Now the media is awash with doom and gloom stories. you cannot miss them, even if you tried. Even when bullish sentiment gets into the media it is castrated by howling voices of derision. Here's an example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/23/ccliam123.xml

The responses to his post are not very favourable.

Does this mean we will enter into a recession? Again, I don't know. It certainly looks like we will. And I know what you're asking, what the frickin heck has this got to do with a blog on NHS dentistry? Well, like it or not, your practice is a business, and businesses have to survive recessions. For those of us in the NHS, it would seem there is a beacon of hope to ride through the choppy seas. it looks like ring fencing will be extended to 2011. if the recession hits hard (and we should know by the beginning of next year if this will be the case) then 15000 practices all going private in a sea of unemployment, bankruptcies and house repossession may not make the best business sense. How likely is a housing downturn......... well, here is another link.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/pdf/abn-amro-home-truths-04042007.pdf


I still feel that our future lies outside the NHS, but (to steal a famous Scotsman's saying) one has to be prudent about this. Whatever plans you make for the next five years MUST take into account economic realities of our present time.

Just a thought

Health Select Committee

Yesterday's final evidence session for the Health Select Committee

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/VideoPlayer.aspx?meetingId=1269